F1 Bahrain GP Preview: Antonelli's Lead Under Pressure As Race Relocated To Malaysia

The rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix lands at Sepang this weekend, with Kimi Antonelli still favourite despite George Russell trimming his championship lead to 66 points in Baku.
F1 Bahrain GP Preview: Antonelli's Lead Under Pressure As Race Relocated To Malaysia
Jake Ashton
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  • Kimi Antonelli remains favourite on the betting sites to win this weekend's race at 11/8
  • Antonelli's championship lead now stands at 66 points after Russell's win in Azerbaijan, with eight rounds still to run.
  • The rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix takes place at Sepang, Malaysia, after the original date was called off earlier in the year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Title Race Heading To A Different Venue

Kimi Antonelli's championship lead has been trimmed to 66 points, and UK Betting Sites now have this weekend's race as another chance for George Russell to eat into that advantage before it's too late. 

The pair go again in different surroundings too, with the rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix taking place not in Bahrain at all, but roughly 3,750 miles away at Sepang, Malaysia.

Russell's win in Baku was exactly the response Mercedes needed after a tricky run of results, holding off Max Verstappen to claim a pole-to-victory drive that cut into Antonelli's advantage at the top of the standings. 

Lando Norris, meanwhile, crashed out in Azerbaijan, a costly weekend that leaves him fourth in the championship and outside the podium picture as the title fight remains, on paper, very much alive.

bet365 now have full odds available for this weekend's race and the Drivers' Championship standings too.

Bahrain GP Winner Odds

Bahrain GP Winner
OddsImplied Probability
Kimi Antonelli11/842.1%
George Russell3/125.0%
Lando Norris7/112.5%
Max Verstappen15/211.8%
Charles Leclerc12/17.7%
Lewis Hamilton12/17.7%
Oscar Piastri14/16.7%
Isack Hadjar25/13.8%

Antonelli's 11/8 price gives him an implied 42.1% chance of victory, comfortably clear of Russell at 3/1 (25.0%). 

Norris drifts out to 7/1 (12.5%) following his Baku retirement, with Verstappen close behind at 15/2 (11.8%).

F1 Drivers' Championship Odds

F1 Drivers' Championship
OddsImplied Probability
Kimi Antonelli1/2095.2%
George Russell16/15.9%
Lando Norris33/12.9%
Lewis Hamilton33/12.9%
Charles Leclerc200/10.5%
Max Verstappen200/10.5%
Oscar Piastri1000/10.1%

At 1/20, Antonelli is priced at a 95.2% implied chance of taking the title, reflecting both his points cushion and the sheer weight of his season so far.

Russell is the only other driver given a realistic shot at 16/1 (5.9%), with Norris and Hamilton both out at 33/1 (2.9%) despite sitting third and fourth in the actual standings.

Why This Weekend's Race Isn't In Bahrain

The Bahrain Grand Prix was originally due to run earlier in the year, but that date was called off amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, leaving organisers needing to find a replacement slot to keep the full 23-race calendar intact. 

Sepang, which hosted the Malaysian Grand Prix for two decades before dropping off the calendar in 2017, has stepped in as host for this one-off event this weekend, giving the circuit its first taste of top-level F1 action in years.

With eight rounds remaining and Russell showing genuine pace in Baku, this weekend's result could matter just as much to the title picture as anything that happens at a more conventional venue later in the season.

What the expert says...
Antonelli at 11/8 looks about right to me given how dominant his season has been, but Russell's Baku win shouldn't be dismissed as a one-off. Mercedes are extremely quick and it could just be a coin flip between the two cars.

Jake Ashton - F1 Betting Expert - OLBG.com

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