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- George Russell heads Japanese GP betting at 4/7 after dominant start
- Mercedes win both opening races with Russell and Antonelli
- Verstappen unbeaten at Suzuka since 2019 despite 25/1 odds
Mercedes Dominance Sets the Tone Ahead of Suzuka
Formula 1 heads to Suzuka this weekend with Mercedes firmly in control of both the race wins and the betting markets after a dominant start to the 2026 season.
George Russell arrives in Japan as the Drivers’ Championship leader, having already claimed victory in Melbourne and the Shanghai Sprint.
His 19-year-old teammate Kimi Antonelli then underlined Mercedes’ supremacy by securing his maiden Grand Prix win in China.
That early-season form has heavily influenced bookmaker pricing, with Bet365 installing Russell as a clear favourite for the Japanese Grand Prix, but Suzuka’s history suggests this race may not be so straightforward.
Japanese Grand Prix 2026 Odds
| Japanese Grand Prix 2026 Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| George Russell | 4/7 | 63.64% |
| Kimi Antonelli | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| Charles Leclerc | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Max Verstappen | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Lando Norris | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Oscar Piastri | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Russell’s position at the top reflects both current form and Mercedes’ pace advantage, with Antonelli next in the betting following his breakthrough win.
Verstappen’s Suzuka Record Adds Intrigue
Despite Mercedes’ dominance, one key storyline cannot be ignored - Max Verstappen’s remarkable record at Suzuka.
The Dutch driver has not lost at the Japanese Grand Prix since 2019, winning the last four races held at the circuit (2022–2025). That streak makes his current price of 25/1 particularly eye-catching.
If Red Bull can find performance this weekend, Verstappen’s pedigree at the circuit could see him outperform his odds significantly.
What
Ferrari Showing Early Promise Behind Mercedes
While Mercedes have set the early pace, Ferrari have quietly established themselves as the nearest challengers.
Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have both featured on the podium in the opening rounds, suggesting the Scuderia have the consistency to capitalise on any slip-ups from Mercedes.
Both drivers are priced at 10/1, indicating that while they are not expected to dominate, they remain firmly in contention should race circumstances shift.
Where To Bet on the Japanese Grand Prix
If you’re looking to get involved in the Japanese Grand Prix markets, a range of platforms offer competitive odds across race winners and season-long betting.
You can compare prices and unlock the latest free bets across leading betting sites, ensuring you get the best value ahead of race weekend.
For more options across motorsport and entertainment markets, visit the top motorsports betting sites page.
