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- Bookmakers have installed UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin as the clear favourite to become the next FIFA president at 6/5
- Infantino's position has weakened considerably after abandoning his FIFA Forward Enterprise plan
- PSG chairman Nasser Al-Khelaifi sits as the clearest alternative at 2/1, with 17 names in total currently priced up across the wider market.
Infantino's Position Under Mounting Pressure
Gianni Infantino is under mounting pressure ahead of March's FIFA elections, with bookmakers reacting to the current president's weakened standing by installing UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin as the clear favourite to take over at 6/5.
Infantino has faced intense scrutiny since abandoning his FIFA Forward Enterprise plan, which would have seen world football's governing body sell a minority stake in its commercial and event operations, including both World Cup formats.
That collapsed plan has left Infantino facing the prospect of litigation, a development that has clearly filtered through into how the market now views his prospects of continuing at the helm of world football's governing body.
Elections for a role of this significance rarely move quickly, but with Infantino's position looking shakier than it has in some time, the months leading up to March now look set to be closely watched by anyone with an interest in the sport's governance.
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The Failed FFE Plan And Its Fallout
The FIFA Forward Enterprise plan was designed to bring private investment into some of football's most valuable commercial assets, but its abandonment has instead become one of the defining storylines of Infantino's presidency heading into this year's election.
Selling even a minority stake in operations tied to the World Cup itself was always going to be a contentious proposal, and its collapse appears to have done lasting damage to confidence in his leadership.
Governance stories of this kind rarely resolve themselves cleanly, and with legal proceedings still a possibility, it wouldn't be a surprise to see further developments emerge in the coming weeks that continue to shape how this market moves between now and the vote itself.
The Odds: Ceferin Leads A Crowded Field
With 17 names currently priced up across the market, this looks set to be one of the more open FIFA presidential races in recent memory.
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Ceferin | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| Nasser Al-Khelaifi | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Victor Montagliani | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Dariusz Mioduski | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Arsene Wenger | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Mattias Grafstrom | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Patrice Motsepe | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Lise Klaveness | 18/1 | 5.3% |
| Gabriele Gravina | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Hans-Joachim Watzke | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Mark Bullingham | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Carlos Puyol | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Fabio Cannavaro | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Gareth Southgate | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Pep Guardiola | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Sepp Blatter | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Ceferin's implied probability of 45.5% puts him well clear of the rest of the field, though Nasser Al-Khelaifi's 33.3% is still a substantial price for a genuine second favourite in a race of this nature.
Arsene Wenger and Mattias Grafstrom are tied at 8/1, and Patrice Motsepe occupies the market on his own at 12/1.
Lise Klaveness, currently the president of the Norwegian Football Federation, sits at 18/1, while a group of three names, Gabriele Gravina, Hans-Joachim Watzke and Mark Bullingham, are all priced at 25/1.
Four high-profile football figures, Carlos Puyol, Fabio Cannavaro, Gareth Southgate and Pep Guardiola, round out the market's longer prices at 33/1, with former FIFA president Sepp Blatter the outsider of the entire field at 50/1.
Where To Bet On The Next FIFA President
For those looking to get involved in the market, it's worth comparing prices across a range of betting sites, since odds on political and governance markets like this one can shift considerably as March's elections approach.
Checking out some of the best football betting sites is a sensible starting point for anyone newer to this type of market, and many offer free bets for new customers, which can be a useful, low-risk way to follow the story as it develops.
