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- Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz begins his US Open title defence against Russia's Roman Safiullin
- World number one Jannik Sinner will miss the tournament through injury, a huge absence that leaves the men's draw considerably more open than it might otherwise have looked.
- Aryna Sabalenka heads the women's market at 10/3, with Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff both priced up as live challengers behind her.
Alcaraz's Return Begins Against Safiullin
Carlos Alcaraz's US Open title defence gets underway against Russia's Roman Safiullin, a first-round assignment that arrives after a genuinely unsettled few months for the Spaniard, and bookmakers still make him the clear favourite to lift the trophy again despite the layoff.
Alcaraz, who won the men's title in New York last year, hasn't played a competitive singles match in more than four months because of inflammation in his playing right wrist, an issue serious enough to force him out of both the French Open and Wimbledon this season.
That's a significant amount of ring rust to shake off against any opponent, let alone in a Grand Slam where the seven-time major champion will be expected to defend ranking points and a title in one go, but bet365 still put him at the top of the betting odds for the US Open.
Missing two majors in a single season is rare territory for a player of Alcaraz's standing, and it naturally raises questions about match sharpness that simply can't be answered until he's back out on court under tournament pressure.
A straightforward opener against Safiullin gives him about as gentle a re-entry as the draw could have offered, though gentle is a relative term at this level of competition.
Sinner's Absence Leaves The Men's Draw Wide Open
Adding another layer of intrigue to this year's tournament, world number one Jannik Sinner will miss the US Open entirely through injury, removing the man who has dominated the men's game for large stretches of the past two seasons.
His absence, combined with the uncertainty around Alcaraz's own fitness, leaves a men's draw that looks considerably more competitive than it has in recent memory.
| US Open 2026 Men's Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 8/5 | 38.5% |
| Alexander Zverev | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Novak Djokovic | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Arthur Fils | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Rafael Jodar | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Ben Shelton | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Taylor Fritz | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Alcaraz's implied probability of 38.5% still puts him well clear of the field despite the uncertainty over his form, with Alexander Zverev the clearest alternative at 23.1%.
Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar and Ben Shelton are all tied at 10/1, each carrying an implied probability of 9.1%, while Taylor Fritz rounds out the leading names at 12/1.
What the expert says...
Sabalenka Heads A Well-Stacked Women's Field
The women's draw carries its own share of intrigue, with Aryna Sabalenka the current favourite ahead of a genuinely deep chasing pack.
| US Open 2026 Women's Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Iga Swiatek | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Coco Gauff | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Naomi Osaka | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Jessica Pegula | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Elena Rybakina | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Sabalenka's implied probability of 23.1% is far from overwhelming, with Iga Swiatek's 18.2% and Coco Gauff's 16.7% keeping this very much a three-way conversation at the top of the market.
Naomi Osaka's continued rise back up the rankings sees her sit as the clearest name outside the leading three at 9.1%, just ahead of Jessica Pegula at 8.3%.
Where To Bet On The US Open
For those looking to get involved across both draws, bet365 is offering prices on every named contender, and you can find out more via the bet365 review on OLBG.
With Alcaraz's fitness and Sinner's absence both adding genuine uncertainty to this year's tournament, it's worth comparing odds across a range of bookmakers before deciding where to place anything.
Checking out some of the best tennis betting sites is a sensible starting point for anyone newer to Grand Slam markets, and many offer free bets for new customers.
