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- Wham! lead the Christmas Number One 2026 betting at 1/2, with Last Christmas tipped to dominate the airwaves once again despite the track never actually having topped the chart itself.
- Sam Fender and Olivia Dean, who have dominated the UK Singles Chart for much of the year, are next in the betting at 6/4.
- Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift and Ed Sheeran are all tied at 3/1, just behind early pace-setter Ella Langley at 2/1.
Wham! Lead The Race For Christmas Number One
It's that time of year again when the betting experts start to fill up with festive markets, and the race for Christmas Number One 2026 is already shaping up to be a fascinating one.
Despite Sam Fender and Olivia Dean's dominance of the UK Singles Chart for much of this year, it's Wham! who have been installed as early favourites to grab the top spot, with Last Christmas once again expected to be one of the most played songs of the festive period.
Last year's race was won by Kylie Minogue after Amazon Music pushed her song XMAS on their streaming platform, and she may well go again this year, with her odds out at 4/1.
Wham! though are unsurprisingly favourites, and the experts expect them to be in and around the top spot this year.
Christmas Number One 2026 Odds
Christmas Number One 2026 | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Wham! | 1/2 | 66.7% |
Sam Fender and Olivia Dean | 6/4 | 40.0% |
Ella Langley | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Olivia Rodrigo | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Taylor Swift | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Ed Sheeran | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Kylie Minogue | 4/1 | 20.0% |
LadBaby | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Sidemen | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Bov Boys | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Wham! sit at a short 1/2 for festive glory, a price that reflects just how reliably the track performs once the streaming numbers are tallied up each December.
Sam Fender and Olivia Dean, this year's chart story, follow at 6/4, a reminder that chart dominance across the year doesn't always translate into festive betting confidence.
Ella Langley rounds out the leading trio at 2/1, while Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift and Ed Sheeran are locked together at 3/1 apiece.
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
The Rest Of The Market
Kylie Minogue drifts out to 4/1 despite being Christmas Number One last year with her single XMAS.
XMAS will likely be in the big streaming playlists again this year, and it'll be no surprise to see her at the top spot again in 2026.
The Sidemen come in at 10/1, reflecting their enormous online following and ability to mobilise streams at short notice, while Bov Boys complete the list at 12/1 as the outsider of the pack.
This market can move quickly once release schedules and radio playlists firm up in the coming weeks, so none of these prices should be treated as set in stone.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet On Christmas Number One
OLBG's guide to the best entertainment betting sites is a useful starting point for comparing where the sharpest festive prices tend to be found.
