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- Tom Whittaker has been cut to 1/2 to win this year's Bake Off after landing his first Star Baker title in week two.
- Danni became the series' first baker to leave the tent, voted off by the judges on the same episode Tom impressed.
- Clara Satchell-Silva (5/4) sits closest behind the new pace-setter, with Mo Mahirr and Connie Lewis tied at 6/4 in the chasing group behind her.
Tom's Star Baker Turn Shakes Up The Tent
Week two of this year's Great British Bake Off finally gave the market something concrete to work with, and now the odds have changed drastically on who will be crowned champion baker this year.
Hairdresser Tom Whittaker, who had already caught the judges' eye with a strong opening week, backed up that early promise with his first Star Baker title, and the reaction in the odds was swift.
The same episode brought the series' first elimination, with Danni voted off by Paul Hollywood and Nigella Lawson after struggling for a second week running.
Tom has gone from a solid week-one showing to being installed as a firm outright pace-setter, while the rest of the tent regroups behind him.
With this looking like one of the more competitive fields the show has fielded in years on paper, it's still early enough that a single strong week can reshape the whole picture, which is exactly what's happened here.
Great British Bake Off Winner Odds
Here's how the market for this year's Bake Off winner now reads:
Baker | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Tom Whittaker | 1/2 | 66.7% |
Clara Satchell-Silva | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Mo Mahirr | 6/4 | 40.0% |
Elizabeth 'Connie' Lewis | 6/4 | 40.0% |
Gary Harding | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Shannon Amy | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Gabe Capes | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Nikki | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Moyin Odeniran | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Molly Chauhan | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Yannis | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Clara Satchell-Silva remains the sharpest of Tom's challengers at 5/4, having impressed across both episodes so far, while Mo Mahirr and Connie Lewis share second-favourite billing at 6/4 after solid, if quieter, starts to the competition.
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
The Chasing Pack And The Dark Horses
Behind the front three, the market is far more bunched. Gary Harding drifts to 5/2 after a mixed start, high in week one, safe in week two, and sits just ahead of the 3/1 duo of Shannon Amy and Gabe Capes, both of whom have stayed comfortably clear of trouble without producing a standout bake yet.
Nikki and Moyin Odeniran share the next line in the betting at 7/2 apiece, both quietly consistent so far, while Molly Chauhan drifts to 5/1 after a low mark in week one that she recovered from just enough to stay in the tent.
At the bottom of the list, paediatric doctor Yannis is the outsider at 7/1, having struggled in last night's episode.
Two episodes in, prices this tight lower down the list say as much about how little separates the middle of the pack as they do about any one baker's chances, and it wouldn't take much to reshuffle several of these positions before the next elimination.
Expert View
What the expert says...
Where To Bet On The Bake Off Winner
For a fuller rundown of where the sharpest prices and offers tend to sit, OLBG's guide to the best entertainment betting sites is a good starting point before backing a baker to go all the way.
