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- 2026 is priced at 1/5 to finish as the #1 ranked hottest year on record, with a #2 finish available at 3/1.
- A strong El Niño event is forecast to bring a wet December to the UK, with Glasgow the shortest price at 1/1 (50% implied) to be the wettest city.
- Cardiff (6/4) and the tied pair of Manchester and Bristol (2/1) are the nearest challengers in the wettest city market.
2026 On Course For The Record Books
2026 looks set to be remembered for its weather in more ways than one, and betting sites have already made their view clear on where it'll land in the history books.
Climate specials markets currently price 2026 at a short 1/5 to be confirmed as the #1 ranked hottest year on record, with a finish as the second hottest available at 3/1 for anyone who thinks this year falls just short of the top spot.
Prices this short on the top ranking reflect a run of data throughout the year that's left little doubt about where 2026 sits historically, and it sets up an unusual situation heading into winter: a year already shaping up as one of the hottest on record is now forecast to end with a notably wet December across the UK.
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Hottest Year On Record Odds
Here's how the market for 2026's position in the record books currently reads:
Where will 2026 Rank on Hottest Year? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
#1 Ranking | 1/5 | 83.3% |
#2 Ranking | 3/1 | 25.0% |
At 1/5, the market is about as close to a formality as these specials markets get, and it would take a significant shift in the final months of data to see 2026 settle for second rather than top spot.
The 3/1 price on a #2 finish exists mainly as insurance for anyone who thinks the numbers could still tighten before the year is out.
El Niño Set To Deliver A Wet December Across The UK
A strong El Niño event is forecast to develop in time for the UK's winter, with December expected to bring significantly more rainfall than usual.
The odds make for interesting reading given how often this kind of market tends to follow regional rainfall patterns through the autumn.
Where will be the wettest UK city in December? | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Glasgow | 1/1 | 50.0% |
Cardiff | 6/4 | 40.0% |
Manchester | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Bristol | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Plymouth | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Aberdeen | 4/1 | 20.0% |
Edinburgh | 4/1 | 20.0% |
Birmingham | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Liverpool | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Sheffield | 6/1 | 14.3% |
London | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Swansea | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Southampton | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Glasgow heads the market at evens, a reflection of the city's reputation for high rainfall totals even before an El Niño winter is factored in.
Cardiff is the clearest challenger at 6/4, with Manchester and Bristol tied at 2/1 just behind.
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
