I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Labour top bet365’s most seats market at 6/4, an implied 40% chance.
- Reform UK are 11/5 and the Conservatives 10/3, leaving three parties priced under 4/1.
- 2029 or later is the 10/11 front-runner for the year of the next General Election.
Labour On Top As Burnham Settles In
Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister for less than three months, and UK betting sites continue to price his party as the one to beat.
Labour are 6/4 with bet365 to win the most seats at the next General Election, which works out at a 40% chance.
That is a sharp change from the first half of the year. Reform UK led this market for months while Keir Starmer was in Downing Street, and it was only after his resignation in June that Labour moved to the head of the betting.
The polls have followed a similar path. Labour were first or joint-first in eight consecutive surveys after Burnham took office in July, and a recent poll in September had them on 26%, one point ahead of Reform.
Most Seats Odds
| General Election Most Seats | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Reform UK | 11/5 | 31.3% |
| Conservatives | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Restore Britain | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Green | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| Your Party | 250/1 | 0.4% |
| Workers Party of Britain | 750/1 | 0.1% |
A 40% chance is a lead, but hardly a commanding one. Reform UK at 11/5 are still given close to a one-in-three chance, and Nigel Farage’s party has not gone away despite a difficult summer that included scrutiny over donations.
The Conservatives are the interesting ones at 10/3. Kemi Badenoch’s party sat on 20% in that September poll, and bet365 gives them nearly a one-in-four chance of finishing as the largest party.
Add Restore Britain at 10/1, and four parties are at 10/1 or shorter, which says a lot about how fragmented the vote has become.
What the expert says...
When Will The Next General Election Be Held?
| Year | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| 2027 | 15/8 | 34.8% |
| 2028 | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| 2026 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
bet365 also offer odds on the timing, and the market leans towards the government going long. An election does not have to be held until the summer of 2029, and 2029 or later is the only odds-on option at 10/11.
Burnham himself has played down talk of going early, saying shortly after taking office that he did not think the public wanted another General Election.
With polling leads that have been narrow rather than decisive, there is little obvious incentive to gamble.
Where To Bet On The General Election
bet365 have both markets available now, and most major bookmakers price up the next General Election all year round.
Odds on most seats can differ noticeably between firms, particularly on Reform UK and the Conservatives, so it pays to shop around.
Our guide to the top political betting websites in the UK compares the firms with the deepest range of political markets.
