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- The betting markets suggest no official EU membership referendum will take place before 2035, priced at odds-on 1/7 with Ladbrokes
- 2034 is currently the most fancied individual year for a potential vote, priced at 12/1
- The market arrives a decade on from the original Brexit referendum, held on Thursday 23 June 2016
A Decade On From The Original Vote
It's been ten years since the UK went to the polls to decide its future relationship with the European Union, and bookmakers have marked the occasion by opening up a genuinely fascinating market on what might happen next.
The original Brexit referendum took place on Thursday 23 June 2016, and with a full decade now passed, Ladbrokes are pricing up the prospect of another official vote on EU membership, this time potentially in the other direction.
Ladbrokes have priced the prospect of no official referendum taking place before 2035 at odds-on 1/7, suggesting the betting markets see any near-term return to the ballot box on this issue as highly unlikely.
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EU Referendum Odds: The Full Breakdown
| When will an EU Referendum take place? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No referendum before 2035 | 1/7 | 87.5% |
| 2034 | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| 2031 | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| 2030 | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| 2032 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2033 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2029 | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| 2028 | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| 2026 | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| 2027 | 100/1 | 1.0% |
Individual Years: A Genuinely Spread Market
Looking at the individual year-by-year pricing, 2034 currently holds the shortest individual price at 12/1, suggesting that if a vote were to happen within the next decade, the market sees the latter end of that window as the more plausible timing.
Both 2031 and 2030 follow at 14/1, while 2032 and 2033 are priced at 16/1, showing a relatively even spread across the middle years of the coming decade rather than any single year standing out as a clear favourite.
At the other end of the market, both 2026 and 2027 are priced at a lengthy 100/1, reflecting how implausible the markets consider an imminent referendum to be.
2028 follows at 66/1, while 2029 is available at 25/1.
Where To Bet On A Future EU Referendum
With this being a genuinely long-range market, prices are likely to shift gradually over time as the political landscape continues to evolve.
It's worth comparing prices across a range of betting sites for markets like this one, and checking for free bets if you're new to political betting.
Our guide to the top political betting sites is the perfect place to start for comparing the best operators for markets like this one.
