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- Labour's Bev Craig is a huge favourite with Ladbrokes at 1/50 to win the Greater Manchester mayoral election, held a week from now
- The vote follows Andy Burnham's departure from the role after becoming Prime Minister, triggering the need for a successor
- YouGov polling has Craig 14 points clear at the top of first preference voting intention, with Reform UK's Sian Astley best placed to join her in a second round
A Mayoralty Vacated By A New Prime Minister
It isn't every day that a regional mayoral election is triggered by its incumbent becoming Prime Minister, but that's exactly the backdrop to next week's vote in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham's departure from the role to take up residence in Downing Street has left the region needing a new mayor, and with polling day now just a week away, the top UK betting sites already have a clear picture of how they expect it to play out.
Labour's Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council, has emerged as an enormous favourite with Ladbrokes, priced at just 1/50 to take over from Burnham.
It's about as decisive a price as you'll see in any electoral market, reflecting both Labour's dominant position in the region and Craig's own standing within local politics.
With a price that short, there's little suggestion from the betting markets that this contest is likely to produce any real surprises come next week.
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Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Odds
Ladbrokes have priced up the full field ahead of polling day, with Craig sitting miles clear at the top.
| Party/Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/50 | 98.0% |
| Reform UK | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Green Party | 28/1 | 3.4% |
| Restore Britain | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Conservatives | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Marcus Farmer (Independent) | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
An implied probability of 98% for Labour leaves little room for doubt over the expected outcome, with Reform UK and the Green Party the only other parties trading at what could reasonably be called realistic prices.
What The Polling Is Telling Us
The scale of Craig's advantage is backed up by recent polling from YouGov, whose latest data has her clear at the top of voting intention.
Their model puts Craig on 38% of first preference votes, a full 14 points ahead of her nearest rival, giving a strong early indication of how the first round of counting is likely to unfold.
It's worth noting she's projected to fall short of the 50% threshold needed to win outright at that stage, meaning this looks set to be a contest decided over more than one round of counting.
Where To Bet On The Greater Manchester Mayoral Election
With polling day fast approaching, Ladbrokes currently offer one of the more comprehensive markets on this contest.
Our guide to the top political betting sites is the perfect place to start for comparing the best operators for markets like this one.
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
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