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- Labour are the 1/7 favourites with Ladbrokes to win the Makerfield by-election on June 18
- The latest polls puts Labour at 49%, Reform UK at 39% and Restore Britain at 8%
- Reform UK are 5/1 with Ladbrokes to win the seat outright
Ten Days to Go And the Most Consequential By-Election of the Modern Era Reaches Its Final Act
The Makerfield by-election on June 18 has consumed British politics for weeks, and with polling day now just ten days away, Ladbrokes have shortened Labour to a dominant 1/7 as the market prices in Andy Burnham's personal popularity advantage.
For those looking to follow the political betting markets ahead of the vote, the top political betting sites have the full range of by-election, leadership and further markets available, and the prices have never been more dramatic or more revealing about the state of British politics in the summer of 2026.
The by-election was triggered on 14 May when Josh Simons resigned his parliamentary seat specifically to allow Burnham to stand.
Burnham has been certified as Labour's candidate by the National Executive Committee, and Reform UK have selected Robert Kenyon as their standard bearer, a candidate whose social media history has already generated significant local controversy after a humiliating media interview in which he was unable to defend his online remarks.
Burnham's Question Time Admission: The Words That Changed Everything
The moment that has electrified this by-election came not on the doorsteps of Makerfield but on a BBC studio sofa.
Appearing on Question Time last week, Burnham was pressed directly on whether he would stand for the Labour leadership, and for the first time, he stopped short of his previous careful deflections.
"I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running, I would seek to join it," he told the panel.
"But I'd have to persuade members of the Parliamentary Labour Party to do the same." It was not a formal declaration of candidacy. It was, however, the clearest signal yet that winning in Makerfield is not merely about securing a parliamentary seat for its own sake.
It is the foundation of an explicit bid for the Labour leadership and, ultimately, Downing Street.
The significance of that admission cannot be overstated. Burnham has spent weeks navigating the fine line between being the obvious successor to Starmer and being the candidate who forces an unseemly contest at a moment of national crisis.
2026 Makerfield By-Election Odds
| Party / Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour (Andy Burnham) | 1/7 | 87.5% |
| Reform UK (Robert Kenyon) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Restore Britain | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Green Party | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Conservatives | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
Why Reform's "Two Horse Race" Framing Is Not Wrong
Reform's campaign has focused relentlessly on a single message: this is a two-horse race, and a vote for Restore Britain is effectively a vote for Andy Burnham.
The arithmetic supports their argument. At 8%, Restore's support comfortably exceeds Labour's current polling margin over Reform.
If even half of Restore's voters were to switch to Reform, the gap would close to within the margin of error.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on the Makerfield By-Election
With polling day on Thursday June 18 and the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning, now is the time to get your by-election selections on before the market closes.
Ladbrokes are one of the most trusted UK betting sites for political markets, with competitive odds across all candidates.
New customers may find free bets available so always check the latest promotions before placing.
For a full comparison of political betting markets and the best prices available, visit our guide to the top political betting sites.
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