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- Reform UK's Paul Jakeman as the clear favourite for the Southey by-election on 27 August
- Former Lord Mayor Jayne Dunn has been selected as Labour's candidate, just three months after losing her Southey seat to Reform UK's Yvonne Sykes in May's local elections
- Five candidates will contest the seat in total, representing Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Green Party
Jakeman Favourite Following Reform's May Success
Betting experts have installed Reform UK's Paul Jakeman as the clear favourite to win the Southey by-election on 27 August, a contest triggered by the resignation of sitting Councillor Gareth Slater in early July.
Five candidates in total have been confirmed to stand, with all the major parties represented in what promises to be a closely watched local contest.
The by-election also marks a notable moment for Labour's Jayne Dunn, the former Lord Mayor who has been selected as the party's candidate just three months after losing her own Southey seat to Reform UK's Yvonne Sykes in May.
Dunn's decision to stand again so soon after defeat is a notable one, and it sets up an interesting subplot to a contest that might otherwise have been viewed purely through the lens of national polling trends.
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May's Result Sets The Scene
May's local elections in Southey saw Reform UK's Yvonne Sykes win comfortably, polling 2,157 votes to finish well clear of Dunn's 1,059 for Labour.
Tuss Ramzan of the Green Party finished third with 557 votes, ahead of Andrew Mark Smith for the Conservatives on 206 and Kevin Grum for the Liberal Democrats on 204, with independent Joseph Clark and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition's Harry John Lomas rounding out the field.
That result has clearly shaped how the market views this by-election, with Reform's strong showing in May putting Jakeman in pole position despite the seat being contested by a different set of candidates this time around.
It's worth noting that this is a separate seat within the same multi-member ward, rather than a direct rematch of May's contest, though the underlying political mood among Southey voters is likely to carry over regardless of which specific seat is up for grabs.
The Odds: Jakeman Clear Favourite, Dunn Next Best
With five candidates confirmed, the betting suggests this is very much a two-horse race at the top, even if Reform's May margin gives Jakeman a clear edge on paper.
| Candidate | Party | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Jakeman | Reform UK | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| Jayne Dunn | Labour | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Daniel John Moy | Green Party | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Daniel Gage | Conservative and Unionist Party | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Oliver Edward George | Liberal Democrats | 12/1 | 7.7% |
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
Jakeman's implied probability of 66.7% reflects the scale of Reform's advantage following May's result, though Dunn's 40.0% shows Labour are still considered a live threat given her personal profile and previous experience representing the ward.
Moy, Gage and George make up the rest of the field, with the market suggesting a repeat of May's top-two finish is the most likely outcome come 27 August.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet On The Southey By-Election
As things stand, betting sites aren't yet offering markets on the Southey By-Election, so there's no bookmaker to point you towards just yet for this particular outcome.
Checking out some of the top political betting sites is a sensible starting point for anyone newer to this type of market.
With the by-election still a little over a week away at the time of writing, there's plenty of time for the picture to develop further as campaigning continues and more local reaction comes in.
