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- Reform UK's Martin Evison is the clear favourite to win the Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn by-election on 27 August, priced at 1/2 following Amy Hunter's resignation.
- Hunter stepped down just two months after being elected in May, with Reform UK citing health, personal and work commitments that had "changed abruptly."
- Five candidates will contest the seat, with the Liberal Democrats' Stephen Kelly the closest challenger to Evison at 6/4.
Hunter's Sudden Resignation Triggers By-Election
Just two months after being elected to represent Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn, Amy Hunter has stepped down from her role as a Reform UK councillor, with betting experts quick to price up the resulting by-election.
The party said her health, personal and work commitments had "changed abruptly," leaving her unable to give the role "the time and energy it demands."
Set for Thursday 27 August, the contest sees Reform UK once again installed as favourites to hold the seat.
Hunter's departure is a striking one given how recently she was elected. She topped the poll in May's local elections alongside two fellow Reform UK candidates, and her exit after such a short spell in office adds an unusual backdrop to what would otherwise be a fairly routine by-election.
Resignations this soon after an election are relatively uncommon, and they tend to draw extra scrutiny from voters and commentators alike.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
The Odds: Evison Clear Favourite
With five candidates confirmed to stand, the betting suggests this remains very much Reform's seat to lose, even accounting for the circumstances of the vacancy.
| Candidate | Party | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Evison | Reform UK | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| Stephen Kelly | Liberal Democrats | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Linda Isabel Wright | Labour and Co-operative Party | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Alexis Fernandes | Conservative and Unionist Party | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Kimberley Barrass | Green Party | 16/1 | 5.9% |
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
May's Result Sets The Scene
May's local elections in Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn saw Reform UK sweep all three available seats, with Richard Paul Barnes, Michael Vincent Fitzpatrick and Hunter herself all elected on remarkably close vote totals of 1,380, 1,335 and 1,297 respectively.
That tight clustering suggests Reform's support in the ward was spread fairly evenly across their slate of candidates, rather than concentrated behind one standout name.
Reform's dominant showing in May puts Evison in a strong position despite Hunter's unexpected departure.
With such a clean sweep for Reform just three months ago, the other parties face a genuine challenge in convincing voters that anything has changed locally since then.
Expert View
What the expert says...
Where To Bet On The Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn By-Election
As things stand, betting sites aren't yet offering markets on the Southey By-Election, so there's no bookmaker to point you towards just yet for this particular outcome.
Checking out some of the top political betting sites is a sensible starting point for anyone newer to this type of market, and many offer free bets for new customers as a low-risk way to get involved.
