You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 Challenge Stakes Preview
The Challenge Stakes is run at Newmarket Racecourse and is scheduled to take place in October of each year. This Group Two race is open to runners who are aged three or older and is contested over a distance of seven furlongs.
Established in 1878, the race was originally run over six furlongs and two-year-old runners were permitted entry; it was extended to the now seven furlongs in 1977 and two-year-olds were restricted in 1985.
Lennox Stakes Form Counts
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Challenge Stakes Information:
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Newmarket tips on the day of the race. Do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist, or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal races during the Future Champions Festival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026 (UKGC Regulated)
How competitive is the Challenge Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023, when the race had an over-round of 109%. The race in 2007 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 126%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Challenge Stakes, the over-round has been 115%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £115 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Challenge Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Challenge Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Challenge Stakes races over the last 20 renewals:
- Limato (1:22.24) in 2017
- Stimulation (1:22.48) in 2008
- Beauvatier (1:22.52) in 2025
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Challenge Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -15.30. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page to access the OLBG racing picks easily daily.
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:22.24 was set by Limato in 2017, trained by Henry Candy and ridden by Harry Bentley, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2014 when Here Comes When won in a time of 1:26.53 for trainer Andrew Balding, who booked Jim Crowley in the saddle.
Challenge Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Challenge Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed are the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Challenge Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 1:22.85 | Never So Brave (IRE) 5yo 9-5 (4 of 6) 4/1 | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2025 1:22.52 | Beauvatier (FR) 4yo 9-5 (5 of 5) 7/1 | Alexis Pouchin Y Barberot (FR) |
| 2024 1:24.50 | Topgear (FR) 5yo 9-5 (7 of 11) 3/1F | Stephane Pasquier Christopher Head (FR) |
| 2023 1:25.28 | Matilda Picotte (IRE) 3yo 9-0 (6 of 4) 2/1 | Oisin Murphy Kieran P Cotter (IRE) |
| 2022 1:23.83 | Pogo (IRE) 6yo 9-5 (1 of 8) 7/4 | William Buick Charles Hills (GB) |
| 2021 1:24.29 | Al Suhail (GB) 4yo 9-3 (2 of 9) 3/1F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2020 1:25.11 | Happy Power (IRE) 4yo 9-3 (7 of 9) 7/2 | Silvestre De Sousa Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2019 1:24.91 | Mustashry (GB) 6yo 9-8 (5 of 5) 2/1 | Jim Crowley Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
| 2018 1:24.87 | Limato (IRE) 6yo 9-3 (3 of 8) 7/4F | Harry Bentley Henry Candy (GB) |
| 2017 1:22.24 | Limato (IRE) 5yo 9-3 (9 of 11) 6/4F | Harry Bentley Henry Candy (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Challenge Stakes have been based:
- GB: 16 winners with an additional 32 placings from 165 runners
- IRE: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 19 runners
- FR: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 6 runners
2026 Challenge Stakes Replay
Challenge Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Challenge Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Andrew Balding, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Here Comes When (2014), Happy Power (2020) and Never So Brave (2026). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Challenge Stakes are Charles Hills (2 wins) and Henry Candy (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Challenge Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Balding | 13-3-4 | +5.50 | +0.17 |
| Charles Hills | 9-2-6 | +2.75 | +5.45 |
| Henry Candy | 4-2-3 | +1.25 | +0.95 |
| Charlie Appleby | 7-1-3 | -3.00 | -2.35 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 4-1-2 | -1.00 | -0.05 |
| Y Barberot | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| Martyn Meade | 1-1-1 | +6.00 | +3.60 |
| Hughie Morrison | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.70 |
| W McCreery | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.80 |
| Christopher Head | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.80 |
Challenge Stakes Jockey Statistics
There are multiple leading jockeys in the Challenge Stakes over the last 20 renewals, with William Buick, Oisin Murphy, and Harry Bentley having all won the race twice. William Buick winners have been Al Suhail (2021) and Pogo (2022). Oisin Murphy winners have been with Matilda Picotte (2023) and Never So Brave (2026). Harry Bentley's wins have been with Limato (2017 & 2018). There is one jockey who has not had the best of times in the Challenge Stakes; Ryan Moore has ridden 14 runners in the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Challenge Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 13-2-5 | -6.25 | -4.15 |
| Oisin Murphy | 8-2-2 | +0.00 | -3.50 |
| Harry Bentley | 3-2-2 | +2.25 | +0.95 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 4-1-1 | +0.50 | -0.90 |
| Stephane Pasquier | 2-1-2 | +2.00 | +1.90 |
| Alexis Pouchin | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| W J Lee | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.80 |
| Ryan Moore | 14-0-2 | -14.00 | -10.30 |
| James Doyle | 8-0-3 | -8.00 | -4.88 |
| Jamie Spencer | 7-0-3 | -7.00 | -3.25 |
2027 Challenge Stakes Trends
Favourites' finishing positions (oldest to latest): 15, 1, 5, 4, 1, (4, 5), 1, (3, 5), 5, 5, 1, 1, 5, 9, 1, 2, 4, 1, 3, 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (73%) - Had 1 - 4 wins (Trip)
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Break of 21 - 146 days (Last Place)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Beaten no more -4½l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - No bigger than 14/1 (Career Win)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 20 / 20 (83%) - No bigger than 9/1 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Break of 21 - 412 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Achieved an RPR of 97+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Had 1 - 9 placings (Trip)
- 20 / 20 (86%) - Beaten no more -7½l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (87%) - Ran in 8 - 36 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Highest Won is not Cl2-5
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Had 4 - 18 placings (Career)
- 20 / 20 (88%) - Achieved a TS of 51+ (Going)
- 20 / 20 (89%) - Achieved a TS of 77+ (Trip)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Newmarket racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Challenge Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Challenge Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
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2027 Challenge Stakes Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2027 renewal of the Challenge Stakes will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually made 48 hours before the race.
Challenge Stakes Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +25.00, is when runners had 1 career win over the trip.
❌ The worst-performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 career wins over the trip; when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-34.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 4 (5) [6 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 5 (1) [5 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 7 (11,10) [11 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 [4 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (7,2) [8 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Challenge Stakes are Doncaster, Goodwood and Ascot; there have been a total of 3 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 17 winners from a total of 154 runners, while female runners have produced 3 winners from a total of 38 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Challenge Stakes; that stallion, Tagula, has produced 2 winners (2018,2017).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Challenge Stakes despite multiple attempts:
- Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 7 runners)
- Dansili (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Kodiac (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Miss Lucifer in 2007, winning for B W Hills at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Michael Hills. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2027 Challenge Stakes.
Route to the Challenge Stakes
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Challenge Stakes. These are the races in which the recent winners ran before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Never So Brave Doncaster - 6th of 8 (5/1) | Park Stakes |
| 2025 - Beauvatier Haydock - 12th of 17 (16/1) | Haydock Sprint Cup |
| 2024 - Topgear Longchamp - 1st of 9 (19/5) | Qatar Prix du Pin |
| 2023 - Matilda Picotte Doncaster - 1st of 10 (6/1) | Sceptre Stakes |
| 2022 - Pogo York - 2nd of 9 (9/1) | City of York Stakes |
| 2021 - Al Suhail Newbury - 3rd of 15 (16/5) | Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes |
| 2020 - Happy Power Goodwood - 1st of 5 (9/4) | Ladbrokes Supreme Stakes |
| 2019 - Mustashry Sandown - 5th of 8 (12/1) | Coral-Eclipse |
| 2018 - Limato York - 1st of 5 (4/9) | Ryedale House Garrowby Stakes |
| 2017 - Limato Goodwood - 4th of 13 (3/1) | Lennox Stakes |
Other Principal races during the Future Champions Festival
Remember to head to the Newmarket predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters support in the Challenge Stakes. Below are the other principal races that we cover during the Future Champions Festival, with links to each race blog as well as information for last year's winners.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Friday Challenge Stakes | Never So Brave (IRE) 5yo - 4/1 | Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy |
| Friday Fillies Mile | Musical Times (IRE) 2yo - 4/9 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
| Friday Old Rowley Cup | Study Of Words (IRE) 3yo - 10/1 | Charlie Appleby William Buick |
| Saturday Dewhurst Stakes | Darkness Falls (IRE) 2yo - 6/4 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Saturday Cesarewitch Handicap | Alphonse Le Grande (IRE) 7yo - 18/1 | A J Martin Patrick McGettigan |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Challenge Stakes Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
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