You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Mercury Stakes Preview
Scheduled to take place in October of each year at the Dundalk racecourse is the Mercury Stakes, a Group 3 race open to runners who are aged two or older, which is run over a trip of five furlongs. The race was first run in 2008 and was originally a listed race, but was upgraded to a Group 3 in 2018.
Prix de l'Abbaye Feeds the Mercury
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Mercury Stakes Information:
Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Dundalk tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet?
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026 (UKGC Regulated)
How competitive is the Mercury Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 18 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2014, when the race had an over-round of 116%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 139%, whilst on average over the last 18 renewals of the Mercury Stakes, the over-round has been 125%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £125 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Mercury Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Mercury Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Mercury Stakes races over the last 18 renewals:
- Caspian Prince (57.10) in 2016
- Balmont Mast (57.35) in 2012
- Nocturnal Affair (57.70) in 2011
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 18 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Mercury Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 0 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -18.00. Whilst we wait for the 2026 Mercury Stakes, remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 18 renewals, it was Caspian Prince, trained by Roger Fell and ridden by Declan McDonogh, who set the fastest winning time in the Mercury Stakes. That runner won the race in a time of 57.10 in 2016. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Robin Bastiman and jockey Pat Cosgrave with Borderlescott who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 59.10 in the 2008 renewal.
Mercury Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Mercury Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed are the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Mercury Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 58.57 | Spartan Arrow (IRE) 5yo 10-0 (13 of 14) 6/1 | Hollie Doyle Archie Watson (GB) |
| 2024 58.60 | Ostraka (IRE) 4yo 9-11 (3 of 13) 66/1 | James Ryan Daniel James Murphy (IRE) |
| 2023 58.25 | Dun Na Sead (IRE) 4yo 9-11 (3 of 12) 25/1 | Oisin McSweeney Daniel James Murphy (IRE) |
| 2022 58.05 | Manaccan (GB) 3yo 10-0 (2 of 9) 1/1F | Stevie Donohoe John Ryan (GB) |
| 2021 58.28 | The Highway Rat (IRE) 3yo 9-13 (4 of 9) 18/5 | Ronan Whelan A Oliver (IRE) |
| 2020 57.78 | Urban Beat (IRE) 5yo 9-13 (9 of 14) 11/2 | Ben Coen J P Murtagh (IRE) |
| 2019 58.36 | Dr Simpson (FR) 2yo 8-4 (6 of 13) 16/1 | Rory Cleary Tom Dascombe (GB) |
| 2018 57.83 | Hit The Bid (GB) 4yo 9-11 (6 of 9) 4/1 | Chris Hayes D J Bunyan (IRE) |
| 2017 58.55 | Take Cover (GB) 10yo 10-2 (1 of 13) 8/11F | David Allan David C Griffiths (GB) |
| 2016 57.10 | Caspian Prince (IRE) 7yo 9-13 (4 of 14) 6/1 | Declan McDonogh Roger Fell (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Mercury Stakes have been based:
- IRE: 9 winners with an additional 19 placings from 145 runners
- GB: 9 winners with an additional 13 placings from 58 runners
- AUS: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 1 runner
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 1 runner
Mercury Stakes Trainer Statistics
Two trainers have led the Mercury Stakes over the last 18 renewals, with both Daniel James Murphy and David C Griffiths winning the race twice. Daniel James Murphy winners have been with Dun Na Sead (2023) and Ostraka (2024). David C Griffiths' winners have been with Take Cover (2015 & 2017). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Mercury Stakes; A P O'Brien has sent a total of 10 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Mercury Stakes trainer statistics over the last 18 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel James Murphy | 3-2-2 | +90.00 | +53.60 |
| David C Griffiths | 2-2-2 | +3.73 | +2.24 |
| David Marnane | 9-1-2 | -5.50 | -5.35 |
| M Halford | 8-1-2 | -0.50 | -1.20 |
| Kevin Ryan | 7-1-2 | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| Edward Lynam | 6-1-3 | -1.50 | -0.25 |
| D J Bunyan | 5-1-2 | +0.00 | +0.50 |
| Archie Watson | 4-1-2 | +3.00 | +3.10 |
| A Oliver | 4-1-2 | +0.60 | -0.01 |
| Reginald Roberts | 3-1-2 | +4.00 | +4.25 |
Mercury Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Mercury Stakes over the last 18 renewals is Stevie Donohoe, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Sir Maximilian (2014) and Manaccan (2022). Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 18 renewals in the Mercury Stakes; Wayne Lordan (0-11), Colin Keane (0-11), Shane Foley (0-10) and W J Lee (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite having multiple rides in the race.
Here are some of the top Mercury Stakes jockey statistics over the last 18 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevie Donohoe | 2-2-2 | +2.75 | +1.69 |
| Chris Hayes | 14-1-6 | -9.00 | -2.95 |
| Declan McDonogh | 11-1-3 | -4.00 | -2.95 |
| Gary Carroll | 6-1-1 | +1.50 | -1.10 |
| Ronan Whelan | 6-1-2 | -1.40 | -1.14 |
| Ben Coen | 5-1-2 | +1.50 | +0.13 |
| Hollie Doyle | 4-1-2 | +3.00 | +3.10 |
| Rory Cleary | 3-1-2 | +14.00 | +9.50 |
| James Ryan | 2-1-1 | +65.00 | +38.60 |
| Oisin McSweeney | 1-1-1 | +25.00 | +15.00 |
2026 Mercury Stakes Trends
Favourites' finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 2, (2, 3), 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 6, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1, 6, (3, 5), 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 18 / 18 (64%) - Achieved an RPR of 87+ (LTO)
- 18 / 18 (73%) - Ran in 5 - 13 races (Season)
- 18 / 18 (74%) - Achieved an RPR of 93+ (Last 3)
- 18 / 18 (74%) - Beaten no more -7l (LTO)
- 18 / 18 (74%) - Had 2 - 7 placings (Season)
- 18 / 18 (74%) - Had 2 - 15 placings (Trip)
- 18 / 18 (75%) - Held an OR of 89+ (Trip)
- 18 / 18 (76%) - Ran in 5 - 14 races (1 Year)
- 18 / 18 (77%) - Break of 10 - 122 days (Last Place)
- 18 / 18 (77%) - Ran in 3 - 8 races (180 Days)
- 18 / 18 (78%) - Had 4 - 26 placings (Career)
- 18 / 18 (80%) - Held an OR of 89+ (Last 3)
- 18 / 18 (80%) - Achieved a TS of 71+ (Last 3)
- 18 / 18 (83%) - Not on HY/GF/STD-SLW (LTO)
- 18 / 18 (84%) - Carried 118 - 137lbs (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Dundalk racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Mercury Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Mercury Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
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2026 Mercury Stakes Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2026 renewal of the Mercury Stakes will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually made 48 hours before the race.
Mercury Stakes Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 9+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +71.48, is when runners ran on Good ground last time out.
❌ The worst-performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 career wins; when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-50.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 13 (5,15) [14 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 3 (11,4) [13 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 3 (4,5) [12 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 2 (4,11) [9 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 4 (2,8) [9 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Mercury Stakes is Longchamp; there have been a total of 5 winners of this race who ran at Longchamp last time out. The next best courses, which have produced the second most winners, are Dundalk (AW) and Curragh; there have been a total of 3 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 117 runners, while female runners have produced 5 winners from a total of 88 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Mercury Stakes:
- Dandy Man (2 Wins)
- Exceed And Excel (2 Wins)
- Singspiel (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Mercury Stakes despite multiple attempts:
- Acclamation (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Choisir (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Oasis Dream (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Shamardal (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 18 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Ostraka in 2024, winning for Daniel James Murphy at odds of 66/1 under the guidance of James Ryan. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 18 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Ahead of the 2026 Mercury Stakes, why not head over to the best racing tipster page to see what the tipsters are backing today?
Route to the Mercury Stakes
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Mercury Stakes. These are the races in which the recent winners ran before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Spartan Arrow Longchamp - 6th of 8 (33/5) | Prix du Petit Couvert |
| 2024 - Ostraka Curragh - 7th of 9 (20/1) | Darley Irish EBF Brigids Pastures Stakes |
| 2023 - Dun Na Sead Tipperary - 3rd of 8 (9/4) | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Abergwaun Stakes |
| 2022 - Manaccan Ascot - 1st of 10 (4/1) | Oakman Inns Rous Stakes |
| 2021 - The Highway Rat Dundalk (AW) - 2nd of 8 (6/4) | BetVictor Race |
| 2020 - Urban Beat Dundalk (AW) - 2nd of 11 (5/4) | Crowne Plaza Hotel Dundalk Race |
| 2019 - Dr Simpson Ayr - 4th of 12 (10/1) | Shadwell Stud/EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes |
| 2018 - Hit The Bid Longchamp - 14th of 16 (41/1) | Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp |
| 2017 - Take Cover Newbury - 1st of 17 (8/1) | Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes |
| 2016 - Caspian Prince Musselburgh - 1st of 6 (4/1) | Breeders Backing Racing Flying Scotsman EBF Conditions Stakes |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Mercury Stakes Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
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