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2027 Mill Reef Stakes Preview
Named in honour of the 1971 Derby, Eclipse and Arc winner, Mill Reef, this race was established in 1972 and holds Group 2 status. Contested over six furlongs at Newbury Racecourse, it takes place in September of each year.
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Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Mill Reef Stakes Information:
Our dedicated Newbury tips page will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Mill Reef Stakes, but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newbury throughout the season, so be sure to head over there. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Other Principal Races at Newbury Racecourse section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026 (UKGC Regulated)
How competitive is the Mill Reef Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021, when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2026 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 118%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Mill Reef Stakes, the over-round has been 113%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £113 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 Mill Reef Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Mill Reef Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Mill Reef Stakes races over the last 20 renewals:
- Alkumait (1:09.70) in 2020
- Nabati (1:10.61) in 2026
- James Garfield (1:10.64) in 2017
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Mill Reef Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -5.00. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Mill Reef Stakes, see which other runners today are being backed on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Alkumait, trained by Marcus Tregoning and ridden by Jim Crowley, who set the fastest winning time in the Mill Reef Stakes. That runner won the race in a time of 1:09.70 in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Andrew Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy with Array who set the slowest winning time; the race-winning time was 1:17.29 in the 2023 renewal.
Mill Reef Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Mill Reef Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed are the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Mill Reef Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 1:10.61 | Nabati (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (5 of 8) 7/4 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2025 1:14.41 | Words Of Truth (GB) 2yo 9-3 (8 of 8) 7/2 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2024 1:13.89 | Powerful Glory (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (8 of 6) 5/2 | Oisin Orr Richard Fahey (GB) |
| 2023 1:17.29 | Array (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (2 of 6) 7/4F | Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding (GB) |
| 2022 1:13.53 | Sakheer (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (2 of 7) 4/5F | David Egan Roger Varian (GB) |
| 2021 1:12.40 | Wings Of War (IRE) 2yo 9-1 (8 of 9) 17/2 | Adam Kirby Clive Cox (GB) |
| 2020 1:09.70 | Alkumait (GB) 2yo 9-1 (1 of 8) 8/1 | Jim Crowley Marcus Tregoning (GB) |
| 2019 1:10.90 | Pierre Lapin (IRE) 2yo 9-1 (6 of 8) 9/4F | Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian (GB) |
| 2018 1:14.23 | Kessaar (IRE) 2yo 9-1 (2 of 7) 100/30 | Frankie Dettori John Gosden (GB) |
| 2017 1:10.64 | James Garfield (IRE) 2yo 9-1 (3 of 9) 100/30 | Frankie Dettori George Scott (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Mill Reef Stakes have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 29 placings from 146 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
2026 Mill Reef Stakes Replay
Mill Reef Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Mill Reef Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Richard Fahey, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Supplicant (2013), Ribchester (2015) and Powerful Glory (2024). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Mill Reef Stakes are Clive Cox (2 wins), K R Burke (2 wins), Roger Varian (2 wins) and Charlie Appleby (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Mill Reef Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Fahey | 8-3-6 | +2.63 | +6.57 |
| Clive Cox | 8-2-2 | +4.50 | +0.35 |
| K R Burke | 7-2-3 | +9.00 | +4.50 |
| Roger Varian | 4-2-2 | +1.05 | -0.15 |
| Charlie Appleby | 3-2-2 | +4.25 | +2.15 |
| Andrew Balding | 12-1-5 | -9.25 | -5.58 |
| Marco Botti | 3-1-1 | +0.50 | -0.50 |
| Marcus Tregoning | 2-1-1 | +7.00 | +3.80 |
| John Gosden | 2-1-2 | +2.33 | +2.58 |
| George Scott | 2-1-1 | +2.33 | +1.00 |
Mill Reef Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Mill Reef Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Words Of Truth (2025) and Nabati (2026).
Here are some of the top Mill Reef Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 8-2-2 | -0.75 | -2.85 |
| Andrea Atzeni | 4-1-2 | -0.75 | -0.59 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 3-1-2 | +2.00 | +1.25 |
| Oisin Murphy | 3-1-2 | -0.25 | +1.39 |
| James Doyle | 3-1-1 | -0.37 | -0.98 |
| David Egan | 2-1-1 | -0.20 | -0.50 |
| Richard Mullen | 1-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.50 |
| Tony Hamilton | 1-1-1 | +3.50 | +2.19 |
| Oisin Orr | 1-1-1 | +2.50 | +1.56 |
| Ryan Moore | 7-0-3 | -7.00 | -3.53 |
2027 Mill Reef Stakes Trends
Favourites' finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 2, 4, 5, 1, 1, (1, 5), 4, 1, 1, 2, 3, (1, 2), 2, 4, 1, 1, 5, 6, 3
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (65%) - No bigger than 10/1
- 20 / 20 (68%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 20 / 20 (74%) - Achieved a TS of 64+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (76%) - Achieved an RPR of 87+ (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - In a field of 5 - 12 (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (80%) - Beaten no more -5¾l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Not on HY/SFT/FM/STD-SLW/STD (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Beaten no more -5l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Placed within last 2 starts
- 20 / 20 (85%) - Achieved a TS of 71+ (Career)
- 19 / 20 (81%) - Won within last 3 starts
- 19 / 20 (85%) - No bigger than 25/1 (Career)
- 18 / 20 (76%) - Achieved a TS of 70+ (Trip)
- 18 / 20 (80%) - Not on SFT/FM/STD (Last Win)
- 18 / 20 (81%) - Break of 14 - 128 days (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Newbury racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the Mill Reef Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Mill Reef Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
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2027 Mill Reef Stakes Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2027 renewal of the Mill Reef Stakes will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually made 48 hours before the race.
Mill Reef Stakes Trend Analysis
❌ The worst-performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a field of 8 when last winning; when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-20.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 5 (8,2) [8 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 8 (6,3) [8 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 8 (10) [6 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 2 (3) [6 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 2 (1) [7 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the Mill Reef Stakes are Doncaster and York; there have been a total of 4 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes, with male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 145 runners, while female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 3 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Mill Reef Stakes:
- Dark Angel (2 Wins)
- Showcasing (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Mill Reef Stakes despite multiple attempts:
- Invincible Spirit (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Mehmas (0 Wins from 6 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Lord Shanakill in 2008, winning for K R Burke at odds of 10/1 under the guidance of Jim Crowley. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 9 winning favourites in the race. Before placing your bet on the 2027 Mill Reef Stakes, head over to see which runners the best racing tipsters are tipping today.
Route to the Mill Reef Stakes
Many trainers target races as preparation for the Mill Reef Stakes. These are the races in which the recent winners ran before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Nabati Doncaster - 3rd of 9 (1/1) | Flying Scotsman Stakes |
| 2025 - Words Of Truth Newmarket (July) - 1st of 9 (8/13) | JenningsBet British EBF Novice Stakes |
| 2024 - Powerful Glory Pontefract - 1st of 7 (10/11) | Cure Leukaemia EBF "Newcomers" Maiden Stakes |
| 2023 - Array Kempton (AW) - 3rd of 8 (11/8) | Unibet Zero% Mission Sirenia Stakes |
| 2022 - Sakheer Haydock - 1st of 12 (1/2) | Auction Finance EBF Novice Stakes |
| 2021 - Wings Of War Kempton (AW) - 2nd of 7 (15/8) | Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Sirenia Stakes |
| 2020 - Alkumait Goodwood - 1st of 9 (5/4) | British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes |
| 2019 - Pierre Lapin Haydock - 1st of 7 (1/1) | British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes |
| 2018 - Kessaar Kempton (AW) - 1st of 5 (9/1) | 188Bet Casino Sirenia Stakes |
| 2017 - James Garfield York - 2nd of 11 (10/1) | Acomb Stakes |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Mill Reef Stakes Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
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