You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2027 National Stakes Preview
The National Stakes is currently named in honour of Vincent O'Brien; it is a Group 1 race restricted to two-year-old fillies and colts and is run over a trip of seven furlongs.
The first renewal was way back in 1849, with the legendary trainer Vincent O'Brien winning the race no fewer than fifteen times between 1967 & 1992, which is why it is named in his honour.
The Dewhurst double
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
National Stakes Information:
Why not use the trends shortlist below to help you narrow down the field and then head over to the dedicated Curragh tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG expert racing tipsters to find yourself a bet? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Irish Champions Festival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026 (UKGC Regulated)
How competitive is the National Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015, when the race had an over-round of 111%. The race in 2019 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 136%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the National Stakes, the over-round has been 116%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2027 National Stakes Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the National Stakes Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run National Stakes races over the last 20 renewals:
- Pinatubo (1:21.82) in 2019
- Toormore (1:22.67) in 2013
- New Approach (1:23.50) in 2007
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 20 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the National Stakes next time out, then you would have backed a total of 7 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -5.64. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page to access the OLBG racing picks easily daily.
When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 1:21.82 was set by Pinatubo in 2019, trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2008 when Mastercraftsman won in a time of 1:37.59 for trainer A P O'Brien, who booked Johnny Murtagh in the saddle.
National Stakes Past Winners
Here are the National Stakes' past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed are the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the National Stakes are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 1:27.80 | Folsom Blues (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (8 of 8) 11/2 | J M Sheridan Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2025 1:26.73 | Zavateri (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 6) 15/2 | Charles Bishop Eve Johnson Houghton (GB) |
| 2024 1:25.08 | Scorthy Champ (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 8) 12/1 | Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2023 1:27.54 | Henry Longfellow (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (6 of 4) 10/11F | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 1:29.31 | Al Riffa (FR) 2yo 9-5 (5 of 6) 9/1 | Dylan Browne McMonagle Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2021 1:26.27 | Native Trail (GB) 2yo 9-5 (7 of 7) 7/2 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2020 1:28.53 | Thunder Moon (IRE) 2yo 9-5 (1 of 10) 15/2 | Declan McDonogh Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2019 1:21.82 | Pinatubo (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (6 of 8) 1/3F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2018 1:24.81 | Quorto (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (7 of 7) 11/8F | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2017 1:27.32 | Verbal Dexterity (IRE) 2yo 9-3 (4 of 7) 5/2 | Kevin Manning J S Bolger (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the National Stakes have been based:
- IRE: 15 winners with an additional 22 placings from 117 runners
- GB: 5 winners with an additional 4 placings from 23 runners
2026 National Stakes Replay
National Stakes Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the National Stakes over the last 20 renewals is A P O'Brien, who has won the race six times, with those six winners coming from Mastercraftsman (2008), Power (2011), Gleneagles (2014), Air Force Blue (2015), Churchill (2016) and Henry Longfellow (2023). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the National Stakes are Joseph Patrick O'Brien (4 wins), J S Bolger (3 wins) and Charlie Appleby (3 wins).
Here are some of the top National Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 57-6-17 | -43.05 | -34.62 |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 9-4-5 | +29.00 | +17.35 |
| J S Bolger | 13-3-5 | -4.85 | -4.97 |
| Charlie Appleby | 6-3-3 | +2.21 | +0.25 |
| Mrs John Harrington | 5-1-2 | -2.00 | -2.05 |
| Eve Johnson Houghton | 1-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.69 |
| Kevin Prendergast | 1-1-1 | +2.25 | +1.41 |
| D K Weld | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| G M Lyons | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| M Halford | 3-0-2 | -3.00 | -0.02 |
National Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the National Stakes over the last 20 renewals is William Buick, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Quorto (2018), Pinatubo (2019) and Native Trail (2021). Other jockeys who have recorded multiple wins in the National Stakes are Ryan Moore (2 wins), Declan McDonogh (2 wins) and Dylan Browne McMonagle (2 wins).
Here are some of the top National Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Buick | 6-3-3 | +2.21 | +0.25 |
| Ryan Moore | 10-2-7 | -6.29 | -3.42 |
| Declan McDonogh | 6-2-3 | +5.75 | +4.51 |
| Dylan Browne McMonagle | 3-2-2 | +20.00 | +11.83 |
| Seamie Heffernan | 14-1-1 | -10.25 | -11.35 |
| Charles Bishop | 1-1-1 | +7.50 | +4.69 |
| J M Sheridan | 1-1-1 | +5.50 | +3.30 |
| Wayne Lordan | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -2.57 |
| Colin Keane | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.28 |
| Ronan Whelan | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -2.30 |
2027 National Stakes Trends
Favourites' finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 3, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, (4, 5), 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 2
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well.
- 20 / 20 (59%) - Within the first 4 of the market
- 20 / 20 (59%) - No bigger than 12/1
- 20 / 20 (69%) - In a field of 8 - 15 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (69%) - Beaten no more -2l (LTO)
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Achieved an RPR of 87+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (77%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl4 (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Highest Won is not G3/LST/Cl4
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Furthest Won 6f - 7f
- 20 / 20 (78%) - Beaten no more -3¼l (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (81%) - Ran in 1 - 3 races (90 Days)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - Ran in 1 - 4 races (Career)
- 20 / 20 (82%) - No bigger than 10/1 (Debut)
- 20 / 20 (83%) - Achieved a TS of 41+ (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Break of 21 - 121 days (Last Win)
- 20 / 20 (84%) - Not on HY/FM/STD (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above, along with the Curragh racing predictions, to see if you can find the winner of the National Stakes. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, it is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the National Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
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2027 National Stakes Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2027 renewal of the National Stakes will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually made 48 hours before the race.
National Stakes Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +5.43, is when runners finished 1st on debut.
❌ The worst-performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 career start over further; when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-24.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2026: Winner in 8 (2,1) [8 Runners]
- 2025: Winner in 1 (5) [6 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 1 (5,3) [8 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 6 [4 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 5 (6) [6 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the National Stakes is Curragh; there have been a total of 14 winners of this race who ran at Curragh last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Goodwood; there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the National Stakes:
- Galileo (3 Wins)
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Oasis Dream (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Scorthy Champ in 2024, winning for Joseph Patrick O'Brien at odds of 12/1 under the guidance of Dylan Browne McMonagle. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals, there have been 9 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.
Route to the National Stakes
Many trainers target races as preparation for the National Stakes. These are the races in which the recent winners ran before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2026 - Folsom Blues Curragh - 2nd of 8 (15/2) | Phoenix Stakes |
| 2025 - Zavateri Goodwood - 1st of 10 (8/1) | Vintage Stakes |
| 2024 - Scorthy Champ Curragh - 3rd of 4 (19/2) | Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes |
| 2023 - Henry Longfellow Curragh - 1st of 5 (2/9) | Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Irish EBF Futurity Stakes |
| 2022 - Al Riffa Curragh - 1st of 11 (1/2) | John Ormonde Wexford Sand Irish EBF Maiden |
| 2021 - Native Trail Newmarket (July) - 1st of 9 (11/4) | Superlative Stakes |
| 2020 - Thunder Moon Curragh - 1st of 11 (10/1) | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden |
| 2019 - Pinatubo Goodwood - 1st of 7 (6/4) | Vintage Stakes |
| 2018 - Quorto Newmarket (July) - 1st of 7 (5/4) | Superlative Stakes |
| 2017 - Verbal Dexterity Curragh - 2nd of 8 (10/3) | GAIN Railway Stakes |
Principal races during the Irish Champions Festival
Saturday at the Irish Champions Festival
Leopardstown hosts the opening day of the Irish Champions Festival, the highlight of the day being the Irish Champions Stakes, a race dominated by Aidan O'Brien in recent years, with him winning six of the last seven renewals and having won the race a total of thirteen times.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Path Handicap | Krasimir (IRE) 3yo - 15/2 | G M Lyons Reese Holohan |
| Golden Fleece Stakes | Darkness Falls (IRE) 2yo - 1/1 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Matron Stakes | Blue Bolt (IRE) 4yo - 4/5 | Andrew Balding Colin Keane |
| Solonaway Stakes | Quddwah (GB) 6yo - 1/1 | Simon & Ed Crisford James Doyle |
| Irish Champion Stakes | Hotazhell (GB) 4yo - 50/1 | Mrs John Harrington Shane Foley |
| Petingo Handicap | Immutable (IRE) 6yo - 25/1 | Joseph G Murphy Luke McAteer |
Sunday at the Irish Champions Festival
The Sunday of the Irish Champions Festival is hosted at the Curragh with four Group 1 races, the highlight being the Irish St Leger. Aidan has not been as dominant in this, with just seven wins, two behind both Vincent O'Brien and Dermot Weld.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Lad Sprint Handicap | Coul Angel (IRE) 4yo - 7/2 | Michael Appleby Tom Marquand |
| Blandford Stakes | Thundering On (GB) 3yo - 5/4 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Moyglare Stud Stakes | Sun Goddess (IRE) 2yo - 4/7 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Flying Five Stakes | Comanche Brave (IRE) 4yo - 5/2 | Donnacha Aidan O'Brien Billy Loughnane |
| National Stakes | Folsom Blues (IRE) 2yo - 11/2 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien J M Sheridan |
| Irish St Leger | Scandinavia (USA) 4yo - 4/11 | A P O'Brien Ryan Moore |
| Northfields Handicap | Orandi (FR) 8yo - 40/1 | A J Martin Ronan Whelan |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this National Stakes Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for Flat racing.
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