You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Victoria Derby Preview
Established in 1855 and scheduled to take place in late October or early November of each year at the Flemington racecourse is the Victoria Derby, a Group 1 race that is the feature race on the opening day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.
It features on the Saturday before Tuesday's Melbourne Cup, and this race, like its equivalents in the UK, is open to runners aged three years old and is run over a distance of 2,500m.
Caulfield Form Stands Out
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Victoria Derby Information:
You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026 (UKGC Regulated)
How competitive is the Victoria Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2017, when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2025 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 121%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Victoria Derby, the over-round has been 117%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Victoria Derby Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Victoria Derby Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Victoria Derby races over the last 10 renewals:
- Extra Brut (2:34.31) in 2018
- Prized Icon (2:36.16) in 2016
- Observer (2:37.28) in 2025
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Victoria Derby next time out, then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 10 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of +9.00. Why not head over to the racing predictions for tips on other races today?
The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2020 renewal when Johnny Get Angry from Denis Pagan under the guidance of Lachlan King, won in a time of 2:41.91, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Extra Brut, trained by Darren Weir and ridden by John Allen set the quickest time of 2:34.31 in the 2018 renewal.
Victoria Derby Past Winners
Here are the Victoria Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed are the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Victoria Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 2:37.28 | Observer (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 16) 29/20F | Mark Zahra Ciaron Maher (AUS) |
| 2024 2:37.78 | Goldrush Guru (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 16) 7/1 | Jamie Kah Andrew Gluyas (AUS) |
| 2023 2:37.38 | Riff Rocket (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 16) 6/5F | James McDonald Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2022 2:40.86 | Manzoice (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 16) 20/1 | Michael Dee Chris Waller (AUS) |
| 2021 2:37.32 | Hitotsu (AUS) 3yo 9-0 (6 of 16) 3/1F | John Allen Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (AUS) |
| 2020 2:41.91 | Johnny Get Angry (NZ) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 14) 20/1 | Lachlan King Denis Pagan (AUS) |
| 2019 2:40.83 | Warning (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (10 of 15) 17/2 | Damien Oliver Anthony Freedman (AUS) |
| 2018 2:34.31 | Extra Brut (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (13 of 16) 9/1 | John Allen Darren Weir (AUS) |
| 2017 2:37.55 | Ace High (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (3 of 16) 6/1F | Tye Angland David Payne (AUS) |
| 2016 2:36.16 | Prized Icon (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (4 of 16) 16/1 | Glyn Schofield James Cummings (AUS) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Victoria Derby have been based:
- AUS: 10 winners with an additional 18 placings from 147 runners
- NZ: 0 winners with an additional 2 placings from 7 runners
- SIN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
2025 Victoria Derby Replay
Victoria Derby Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Victoria Derby over the last 10 renewals is Chris Waller, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Manzoice (2022) and Riff Rocket (2023). One trainer has not had the best of times in the Victoria Derby; Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young have sent a total of 16 runners to the race without recording a win.
Here are some of the top Victoria Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Waller | 8-2-2 | +15.20 | +4.60 |
| James Cummings | 6-1-3 | +11.00 | +4.00 |
| Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | 5-1-1 | -1.00 | -2.50 |
| Ciaron Maher | 5-1-1 | -2.55 | -3.27 |
| Darren Weir | 2-1-1 | +8.00 | +3.50 |
| Andrew Gluyas | 2-1-1 | +6.00 | +2.50 |
| David Payne | 2-1-1 | +5.00 | +2.00 |
| Denis Pagan | 1-1-1 | +20.00 | +12.00 |
| Anthony Freedman | 1-1-1 | +8.50 | +5.10 |
| Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | 16-0-3 | -16.00 | -14.50 |
Victoria Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Victoria Derby over the last 10 renewals is John Allen, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Extra Brut (2018) and Hitotsu (2021).
Here are some of the top Victoria Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Allen | 8-2-4 | +6.00 | +1.00 |
| Mark Zahra | 9-1-3 | -6.55 | -6.27 |
| James McDonald | 7-1-3 | -4.80 | -4.40 |
| Michael Dee | 5-1-1 | +16.00 | +6.00 |
| Damien Oliver | 5-1-2 | +4.50 | +1.84 |
| Jamie Kah | 4-1-1 | +4.00 | +0.50 |
| Tye Angland | 2-1-1 | +5.00 | +2.00 |
| Lachlan King | 1-1-1 | +20.00 | +12.00 |
| Glyn Schofield | 1-1-1 | +16.00 | +8.00 |
| Jye McNeil | 7-0-0 | -7.00 | -7.00 |
2026 Victoria Derby Trends
Favourites' finishing positions (oldest to latest): 2, 1, 12, 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (47%) - Within the first 7 of the market
- 10 / 10 (49%) - No bigger than 20/1
- 10 / 10 (67%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-4 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (72%) - Furthest ran 6f - 1m2f
- 10 / 10 (76%) - In a field of 7 - 15 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (79%) - Not on HY/SFT/STD (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (85%) - Carried 125 - 127lbs (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (88%) - Ran over 5f - 1m1f (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Dam is not ARG/GB/GER/IRE/JPN/USA bred
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Carried 123 - 128lbs (Debut)
- 9 / 10 (64%) - Furthest Placed 7f - 1m2f
- 9 / 10 (68%) - Break of 7 - 48 days (Last Place)
- 9 / 10 (78%) - Highest Placed is not Cl4
- 8 / 10 (39%) - Highest Won is not G3/Cl4
- 8 / 10 (41%) - Not on HY/SFT (Last Win)
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2026 Victoria Derby Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2026 renewal of the Victoria Derby will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually made 48 hours before the race.
Victoria Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +10.45, is when runners had a highest class run of Class 1 (G1).
❌ The worst-performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners ran in a Class 1 (Listed) last time out; when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-40.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 4 (11,1) [16 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 13 (7,6) [16 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 5 (3,16) [16 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 7 (3,2) [16 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 6 (8,3) [16 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Victoria Derby is Caulfield; there have been a total of 4 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out. The next best course, which has produced the second most winners, is Moonee Valley; there have been a total of 3 winners of this race who ran at Moonee Valley last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Victoria Derby; that stallion, American Pharoah, has produced 2 winners (2024,2023).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Victoria Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Dundeel (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Savabeel (0 Wins from 9 runners)
- Fastnet Rock (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Fiorente (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Pierro (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Johnny Get Angry in 2020, winning for Denis Pagan at odds of 20/1 under the guidance of Lachlan King. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover in our blogs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Coolmore Stud Stakes | Tentyris (AUS) 3yo - 19/10 | Anthony & Sam Freedman Mark Zahra |
| Empire Rose Stakes | Pride Of Jenni (AUS) 8yo - 19/5 | Ciaron Maher Declan Bates |
| Victoria Derby | Observer (AUS) 3yo - 29/20 | Ciaron Maher Mark Zahra |
| Melbourne Cup | Half Yours (AUS) 5yo - 8/1 | Tony McEvoy & Calvin McEvoy Jamie Melham |
| Crown Oaks | Strictly Business (AUS) 3yo - 13/2 | Thomas D Carberry John Allen |
| VRC Champions Mile | Ceolwulf (NZ) 5yo - 4/1 | Joseph Pride Chad Schofield |
| VRC Champions Sprint | Giga Kick (AUS) 6yo - 4/1 | Clayton Douglas Mark Zahra |
| VRC Champions Stakes | Via Sistina (IRE) 7yo - 4/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Victoria Derby Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
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