You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
2026 Crown Oaks Preview
Established in 1861 as the VRC Oaks, it retained that title until 2007, when it was changed to the Crown Oaks. Between 2017 and 2023, the race was known as the Kennedy Oaks; however, in 2024, it reverted to its original name, the Crown Oaks.
The race is on day three of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, which is known as either 'Oaks Day' or 'Ladies Day' and is two days after the Melbourne Cup.
Wakeful Stakes Is the Key
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Crown Oaks Information:
You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information. Head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2026 (UKGC Regulated)
How competitive is the Crown Oaks market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2017, when the race had an over-round of 113%. The race in 2024 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 120%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Crown Oaks, the over-round has been 117%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Crown Oaks Trends. See which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal. We also have a section that looks at the Crown Oaks Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Crown Oaks races over the last 10 renewals:
- Strictly Business (2:36.50) in 2025
- Personal (2:36.98) in 2020
- Pinot (2:37.25) in 2017
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? Over the past 10 renewals, if you had followed the winner of the Crown Oaks next time out, then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 7 runners who have been out since their win at SP next time out would have returned an LSP of -4.30. See which other runners are being backed today on the racing predictions page.
When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 2:36.50 was set by Strictly Business in 2025, trained by Thomas D Carberry and ridden by John Allen, which is the quickest time over that period. The slowest winning time was set in 2021 when Willowy won in a time of 2:40.99 for trainer James Cummings, who booked Damien Oliver in the saddle.
Crown Oaks Past Winners
Here are the Crown Oaks past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the race year, the winning horse, and the horse's age & weight. Also detailed are the stall from which the horse came and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Crown Oaks are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 2:36.50 | Strictly Business (AUS) 3yo 8-11 (13 of 13) 13/2 | John Allen Thomas D Carberry (AUS) |
| 2024 2:39.11 | Treasurethe Moment (AUS) 3yo 8-11 (12 of 14) 21/10F | Damian Lane Matt Laurie (AUS) |
| 2023 2:38.59 | Zardozi (AUS) 3yo 8-11 (5 of 12) 17/10F | James McDonald James Cummings (AUS) |
| 2022 2:39.14 | Shes Extreme (AUS) 3yo 8-11 (1 of 11) 13/10F | Tommy Berry Anthony Cummings (AUS) |
| 2021 2:40.99 | Willowy (AUS) 3yo 8-11 (2 of 11) 27/10F | Damien Oliver James Cummings (AUS) |
| 2020 2:36.98 | Personal (AUS) 3yo 8-11 (10 of 14) 5/1 | Damien Oliver Tom Dabernig & Ben Hayes (AUS) |
| 2019 2:38.32 | Miami Bound (NZ) 3yo 8-10 (7 of 14) 16/5 | Damien Oliver Danny O'Brien (AUS) |
| 2018 2:40.54 | Aristia (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (4 of 15) 9/2 | Damian Lane Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra (AUS) |
| 2017 2:37.25 | Pinot (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (6 of 12) 9/2 | Stephen Baster Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (AUS) |
| 2016 2:37.73 | Lasqueti Spirit (AUS) 3yo 8-10 (9 of 15) 100/1 | Brenton Avdulla Lee Curtis (AUS) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Crown Oaks have been based:
- AUS: 10 winners with an additional 19 placings from 129 runners
- NZ: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 1 runner
- HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
2025 Crown Oaks Replay
Crown Oaks Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Crown Oaks over the last 10 renewals is James Cummings, who has won the race twice, with those two winners coming from Willowy (2021) and Zardozi (2023).
Here are some of the top Crown Oaks trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cummings | 2-2-2 | +4.40 | +2.64 |
| Danny O'Brien | 8-1-3 | -3.80 | -0.08 |
| Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | 5-1-1 | +0.50 | -1.30 |
| Anthony Cummings | 3-1-1 | -0.70 | -1.22 |
| Lee Curtis | 1-1-1 | +100.00 | +60.00 |
| Thomas D Carberry | 1-1-1 | +6.50 | +3.90 |
| Tom Dabernig & Ben Hayes | 1-1-1 | +5.00 | +3.00 |
| Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.70 |
| Matt Laurie | 1-1-1 | +2.10 | +1.26 |
| John Sargent | 7-0-1 | -7.00 | -6.23 |
Crown Oaks Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Crown Oaks over the last 10 renewals is Damien Oliver, who has won the race three times, with those three winners coming from Miami Bound (2019), Personal (2020) and Willowy (2021). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Crown Oaks is Damian Lane (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Crown Oaks jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Oliver | 5-3-5 | +8.90 | +6.99 |
| Damian Lane | 4-2-2 | +4.60 | +1.96 |
| James McDonald | 8-1-3 | -5.30 | -4.01 |
| John Allen | 3-1-1 | +4.50 | +1.90 |
| Stephen Baster | 3-1-1 | +2.50 | +0.70 |
| Tommy Berry | 2-1-1 | +0.30 | -0.22 |
| Brenton Avdulla | 1-1-1 | +100.00 | +60.00 |
| Michael Dee | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -1.00 |
| Ben Melham | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -2.62 |
| Blake Shinn | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
2026 Crown Oaks Trends
Favourites' finishing positions (oldest to latest): 14, 6, 15, 5, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 6
The percentage shown is the proportion of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones, as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the Racing Post in terms of previous runs, etc.
- 10 / 10 (64%) - Achieved an RPR of 89+ (Season)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Ran in 2 - 5 races (90 Days)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Not in a G1-2/LST/Cl4 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Placed within last 1 starts
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Ran over 5½f - 1m (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Beaten no more -6l (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Dam is not CAN/IRE/JPN/NZ bred
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Ran in 2 - 6 races (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (81%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-5 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (82%) - Not on SFT/STD (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (85%) - Not BB/BK/BL/CG/GR in colour
- 10 / 10 (85%) - Furthest ran 1m1f - 1m2f
- 10 / 10 (86%) - Not on SFT (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (86%) - Within the first 11 of the market
- 10 / 10 (89%) - No bigger than 100/1
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101 Ways to find Winners in Horse Racing
2026 Crown Oaks Runners & Shortlist
The runners and the final trends shortlist for the 2026 renewal of the Crown Oaks will be added once the final declarations are confirmed, which are usually made 48 hours before the race.
Crown Oaks Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor, which has produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +54.60, is when runners were Bay in colour.
❌ The worst-performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 1 start in the past 90 days; when backing these, the trend shows a record of 0-29.
Here are the most recent winning draws, along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 13 (12,2) [13 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 12 (9,7) [14 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 5 (11,2) [12 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 1 (10,7) [11 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 2 (11,3) [11 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Crown Oaks is Flemington; there have been a total of 7 winners of this race who ran at Flemington last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Crown Oaks; that stallion is Sebring, who has failed to produce a winner from 8 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Lasqueti Spirit in 2016, winning for Lee Curtis at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Brenton Avdulla. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals, there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs, are based on the information that is available on the Racing Post.
Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover in our blogs.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Coolmore Stud Stakes | Tentyris (AUS) 3yo - 19/10 | Anthony & Sam Freedman Mark Zahra |
| Empire Rose Stakes | Pride Of Jenni (AUS) 8yo - 19/5 | Ciaron Maher Declan Bates |
| Victoria Derby | Observer (AUS) 3yo - 29/20 | Ciaron Maher Mark Zahra |
| Melbourne Cup | Half Yours (AUS) 5yo - 8/1 | Tony McEvoy & Calvin McEvoy Jamie Melham |
| Crown Oaks | Strictly Business (AUS) 3yo - 13/2 | Thomas D Carberry John Allen |
| VRC Champions Mile | Ceolwulf (NZ) 5yo - 4/1 | Joseph Pride Chad Schofield |
| VRC Champions Sprint | Giga Kick (AUS) 6yo - 4/1 | Clayton Douglas Mark Zahra |
| VRC Champions Stakes | Via Sistina (IRE) 7yo - 4/5 | Chris Waller James McDonald |
Article Contributor Information
We are fortunate to have an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to the creation and maintenance of this Crown Oaks Preview are Andy and James. They both work on the Horse Racing Tips team, overseeing the tipsters and managing the tip settlement, while also creating and managing all the horse racing event previews for International racing.
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